David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s former campaign manager, offers insights into defeating Donald Trump in his book, A Citizen’s Guide to Beating Donald Trump. While written before the pandemic drastically altered the political landscape, the book still offers valuable strategies for understanding and engaging with the electorate. Plouffe’s experience and analysis provide a framework for those seeking to influence the upcoming election.
Plouffe acknowledges the discrepancies in swing states and the Clinton campaign’s errors as key factors in the 2016 election results. He emphasizes the importance of targeting “undecided and persuadable” voters, who he believes will ultimately decide the next election. This “gettable” electorate includes first-time voters, Obama/Trump voters, past-Trump voters open to alternatives, and voters who are now open to voting for Trump. Understanding the motivations and concerns of these groups is crucial for any successful campaign.
Plouffe is mindful of how political identification can be an important form of social identity, similar to other group affiliations. He warns that if persuadable voters perceive Trump as someone who “drives them crazy with tweets” and a “terrible person,” yet believe he’s been “OK on the economy” and fear the Democrats will “turn us into a socialist country,” Trump will likely be re-elected. This highlights the delicate balance of appealing to voters’ emotions and addressing their economic concerns. The current state of the economy, however, may change voter priorities.
Joe Biden addressing the public about COVID-19 in Wilmington, Delaware.
The 2018 midterm elections, where Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives, offer a roadmap for future success. This victory was achieved by building upon the traditional Democratic base – liberal voters, minorities, and graduate degree holders – while also making inroads with suburbanites and white women, and increasing turnout among infrequent voters. The shifts in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, which are now leaning Democratic, suggest a potential change in the political landscape. Flipping these states could be decisive in the upcoming election. The record turnout in the Virginia primary and the high turnout in the Florida primary, even amidst the coronavirus outbreak, demonstrate the electorate’s engagement. However, decreased participation in Illinois indicates the need for continuous efforts to mobilize voters.
Plouffe recognizes Biden’s struggles with younger voters, and the need to address their concerns. While Sanders won the younger vote, he failed to electrify them. While the environment is often cited as a key issue for younger voters, the pressing concerns of economic stability and health amidst a pandemic may override it. Mail-in voting is likely to increase in the upcoming election, as disease and social distancing reshape the voting process. The key for Democrats, according to Plouffe’s framework, is to win back the Obama-Trump voters.
Plouffe underscores the importance of maintaining a positive and inclusive tone. He cautions against broadly labeling Trump supporters as “irredeemably deplorable.” Instead, he advocates for competence and compassion, especially during times of crisis. Biden’s speeches on the coronavirus demonstrate the power of presidential leadership and the ability to strike the right tone during times of national emergency. Demonstrative competence and compassion stand to go a long way in troubled times. As live campaign events become relics of the past, Plouffe’s “Citizen’s Guide” offers a valuable framework for understanding the electorate and developing effective strategies for navigating the evolving political landscape. The keys to success are not only understanding the nuances of the electorate, but also projecting competence and compassion during unprecedented times.
