Joe Biden’s success against Bernie Sanders, coupled with the economic downturn under Donald Trump, has shifted the political landscape, presenting Democrats with a significant advantage. This context makes David Plouffe’s book, A Citizen’s Guide to Beating Donald Trump, even more relevant as we approach future elections. Plouffe, renowned for managing Barack Obama’s successful presidential campaign, offers valuable insights into the strategies needed to defeat Trump and his political movement.
In 2016, Plouffe incorrectly predicted a Hillary Clinton victory. This time, he approaches the challenge with a more grounded and detailed strategy, focusing on the crucial elements that can sway voters. His book emphasizes the importance of understanding the electorate and tailoring messages to resonate with key demographics.
Plouffe identifies a significant pool of undecided and persuadable voters who will likely determine the outcome of elections. This “gettable” electorate includes first-time voters, Obama/Trump voters, past-Trump voters open to alternatives, and those now open to voting for him. Recognizing the importance of political identification as a social glue, Plouffe stresses the need to understand and address the concerns of these diverse groups.
Then-candidate Joe Biden delivering remarks on the coronavirus pandemic, highlighting his presidential demeanor.
Plouffe highlights the importance of economic factors in influencing voter behavior. If persuadable voters believe Trump is doing “OK on the economy,” despite finding his tweets and personality off-putting, they might still vote for him. However, with economic uncertainty and potential recession, this advantage diminishes. The key is to effectively communicate how Democratic policies can lead to economic stability and growth for all Americans.
Drawing on the Democratic recapture of the House of Representatives in the midterms, Plouffe emphasizes building on the traditional Democratic base while reaching out to suburban voters and white women. States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, which have historically swung between parties, are crucial targets for Democratic gains.
Key Strategies for Future Elections:
- Targeting Undecided Voters: Focus on addressing the specific concerns and motivations of first-time voters, Obama/Trump voters, and those reconsidering their support for Trump.
- Economic Messaging: Develop clear and compelling arguments about how Democratic policies will benefit the economy and address issues like job creation, healthcare, and education.
- Building Coalitions: Continue to build on the traditional Democratic base while expanding outreach to suburban voters, white women, and other key demographics.
- Utilizing Data and Analytics: Leverage data-driven insights to identify and engage with persuadable voters through targeted messaging and outreach efforts.
- Emphasizing Competence and Compassion: In times of crisis, voters look for leaders who demonstrate competence, empathy, and a clear plan for addressing challenges.
Lessons from 2020 Primaries:
The 2020 primaries offer valuable insights into voter behavior. Record turnout in states like Virginia and Florida suggests high levels of engagement and a desire for change. The shift towards mail-in voting may become more prevalent in future elections, requiring campaigns to adapt their strategies accordingly. While Biden showed some vulnerabilities with younger voters, Sanders did not generate enough excitement among them either, pointing to the importance of finding candidates who can inspire younger generations.
Plouffe acknowledges Biden’s challenges with younger voters, as primary results indicated that Biden won less than 40% of Illinois Democrats under 45. The environment is a top concern, but converting concerns into votes remains a challenge.
Avoiding Missteps:
Plouffe cautions against alienating potential voters by broadly dismissing Trump supporters. He stresses the importance of demonstrating competence and compassion, especially during times of crisis. Biden’s speeches on coronavirus and his primary victories reflected this approach, striking the right tone for a potential leader.
The Road Ahead:
The US political landscape is constantly evolving, and the strategies outlined in A Citizen’s Guide to Beating Donald Trump provide a valuable framework for navigating these challenges. By understanding the electorate, crafting effective messages, and building strong coalitions, Democrats can increase their chances of success in future elections. With live events replaced by daily briefings, campaigns need to evolve and adapt to the current environment. Plouffe’s guidance can help them prepare for this new landscape.
