For Seattle voters navigating the ballot, the choices for media endorsements boil down to two key players: The Seattle Times and The Stranger. In a city with a vibrant, albeit fragmented, media landscape, these two publications stand out as significant, if contrasting, voices when it comes to election recommendations. For anyone seeking a clear direction in the upcoming elections, understanding the influence of each, particularly The Stranger, is crucial. This guide delves into the evolving power of The Stranger’s endorsements, especially as we approach the 2024 elections, and how this alternative paper impacts Seattle’s political scene.
The dynamic between these two papers is more than just a difference in political leaning; it reflects Seattle’s own evolving political identity. The Stranger, known for its progressive stance, resonates deeply with the younger, urban demographic concentrated in neighborhoods like Capitol Hill and Ballard. They proudly wear their leftist badge, often taking jabs at the more moderate Seattle Times. The Times, in contrast, positions itself as the voice of the moderate Seattle voter – aiming to be “socially liberal and fiscally conservative,” as Kate Riley, editor of the Seattle Times editorial page, describes it. This creates a fascinating duality in the city’s media ecosystem, where voters often look to one, or both, of these publications for guidance.
This media rivalry isn’t new, but its intensity has arguably amplified, particularly in the digital age. Both publications actively compete for online visibility, even investing in advertising for election-related Google searches, highlighting the high stakes associated with influencing voter decisions. While the Seattle Times emphasizes objectivity and aims to inform, The Stranger embraces its role as an opinion leader, readily advocating for its chosen candidates.
This landscape is a far cry from The Stranger’s early days. Sandeep Kaushik, a former Stranger reporter and now a political consultant, recalls a time when the paper was viewed as an “outlaw tabloid” – known for its provocative and unconventional approach. However, perceptions have shifted dramatically.
Today, data and political strategists recognize The Stranger’s endorsements as a powerful force. Even a seemingly critical endorsement from The Stranger can be surprisingly beneficial for a campaign, particularly for those challenging the status quo. This influence has grown significantly over the past decade, coinciding with the decline of traditional media and the rise of online news consumption.
Historically, Seattle voters had the Seattle Post-Intelligencer (P-I) and The Times as their primary newspaper choices, with the P-I leaning progressive and The Times catering to moderates and conservatives. The Stranger and Seattle Weekly existed as alternative voices on the fringes. However, the P-I ceased print publication and Seattle Weekly’s endorsement role has diminished, leaving The Stranger to fill a significant void, especially among younger voters.
Kaushik notes a growing generational divide in how voters access information. Older voters still rely on television and The Seattle Times, while younger voters turn to online sources like Slog, The Stranger’s blog. This divide is increasingly evident in Seattle election outcomes, emphasizing The Stranger’s amplified relevance in reaching a crucial voter segment.
Quantifying the exact impact of these endorsements on vote counts is complex. However, Kaushik believes that within Seattle city limits, The Stranger’s endorsement carries the most weight. This is a significant statement from someone who, despite his Stranger background, often works with mainstream campaigns that might find themselves at odds with the paper’s endorsements.
Web analytics offer some insight into The Stranger’s political clout. Tim Keck, The Stranger’s Publisher, shared data from the 2015 primary endorsement guide, revealing interesting readership patterns. On the first day of publication in July, the guide garnered approximately 8,000 views. While readership decreased in the following weeks, it surged to around 10,000 views per day in the immediate lead-up to and on Election Day, as voters rushed to finalize their ballots. This spike occurred even with a characteristically low voter turnout primary election.
The average time spent on the endorsement page was remarkably high – around six minutes, significantly exceeding The Stranger’s overall average time spent on articles. This suggests that readers are engaging deeply with the endorsements, potentially even using them as they fill out their ballots. Further supporting this idea, The Stranger’s “cheat sheet,” a concise list of their endorsements, saw minimal readership initially but experienced a massive spike on Election Day.
The Seattle Times, citing proprietary reasons, declined to share their analytics. However, keyword research using Google AdWords indicates comparable search volumes for “Seattle Times endorsements” and “Stranger endorsements” during the same period. This suggests a similar level of online interest, although it doesn’t account for The Seattle Times’ broader reach through its print edition. The Seattle Times has also adopted a “cheat sheet” approach recently, compiling all endorsements into a single online post and observing increased traffic, particularly closer to election days.
The influence of each paper’s endorsement varies depending on the scope of the race. Outside of Seattle, The Seattle Times undoubtedly holds greater sway due to its wider regional readership. However, within Seattle, The Stranger demonstrates a unique willingness to endorse underdog or even unconventional candidates. When they do, the impact can be substantial.
Political consultant Ben Anderstone points to several instances illustrating this “Stranger Effect.” In 2012, The Stranger endorsed James Robert Deal for Lieutenant Governor, primarily to oppose the incumbent. Despite labeling Deal as “batshit” for his anti-fluoridation platform, he garnered 11% of the Seattle vote, reaching as high as 30% in Stranger-leaning neighborhoods like Georgetown.
“That’s The Stranger’s sway when it’s encouraging ironic voting,” Anderstone explains. “When it gets serious, it has even more influence.” In a subsequent election, The Stranger surprisingly endorsed Republican Bill Finkbeiner in the general election, highlighting his socially progressive stances. Finkbeiner outperformed typical Republican candidates in Stranger strongholds like Capitol Hill, even surpassing Mitt Romney’s performance in the same area by a significant margin.
The upcoming elections, potentially including the 2024 cycle, will likely showcase “The Stranger Effect” once again. In a previous election cycle, Tammy Morales acknowledged the tangible impact of The Stranger’s endorsement on her campaign, noting a clear shift in momentum, fundraising, and voter engagement after securing the paper’s support.
Tim Keck downplays the significance of paid advertising for endorsements, explaining it as a way to ensure their content surfaces quickly in search results, especially given Google’s algorithm’s potential lag in indexing new content. However, for Sandeep Kaushik, this proactive approach aligns with The Stranger’s historical efforts to actively disseminate their endorsements, like the original “cheat sheet” designed for voters to take to the ballot box. Despite its often irreverent tone, The Stranger takes its role in shaping political discourse and election outcomes seriously.
While a Stranger endorsement isn’t a guaranteed victory, particularly in high-profile races, it holds considerable weight, especially in less visible races like those for superior court judge. Kaushik emphasizes that no single endorsement is decisive. However, a dual endorsement from both The Stranger and The Seattle Times is often a near-certain predictor of success. Candidates like Debora Juarez and Lorena Gonzalez, who received endorsements from both papers, achieved significant victories.
From its origins as a counter-culture publication, The Stranger has evolved into a significant power broker in Seattle politics. While some might question if this level of influence compromises its “alternative” status, Kaushik argues that The Stranger’s power is ultimately derived from the voters themselves. Even when The Stranger actively campaigned against Ed Murray in the 2013 mayoral race, their endorsement wasn’t enough to sway the final outcome.
As Seattle gears up for the 2024 elections and beyond, understanding the nuanced influence of media endorsements, particularly from publications like The Stranger, remains crucial for both voters and political observers alike. The Stranger’s election guide continues to be a vital resource for navigating the complexities of local politics, shaping the conversation and influencing electoral outcomes in this dynamic city.
Correction, Oct. 30: Upon Mr. Kaushik’s request, we have added “gold lamé” before “jumpsuits.” We regret any offense caused to Mr. Kaushik, the staff of The Stranger or the 1980s.
